PUBLICATIONS
A Replication of Forsythe (EJ, 2022): Why Don’t Firms Hire Young Workers During Recessions
Joint with J. Crechet, J. Cui, and A. Sawyer
Journal of Comments and Replications in Economics (2025)
Characterizing the Schooling Cycle
Joint with S. Vujic and S. Maier
Economic Modelling (2024) — Link to IZA Working Paper
Detecting Scapegoat Effects in the Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals: A New Approach
Joint with L. Pozzi
Macroeconomic Dynamics (2020) — Link to Bank of Canada Working Paper
Assessing the Predictive Ability of Sovereign Default Risk on Exchange Rates
Joint with F. Ravazzolo and C. Foroni
Journal of International Money and Finance (2018) — Link to Bank of Canada Working Paper
The Determinants of Cross-Border Tax Information Sharing: A Panel Data Analysis for Sweden
Joint with J. Ligthart and R. van Stralen
In Dion, M. (Ed.), Financial Crimes from a Technological Viewpoint to an Ethical Perspective, Springer (2017)
WORKING PAPERS
Climate Change and Socio-Economic Inequality in the U.S.
Joint with T. Dahlhaus
Submitted
Abstract. We study the effects of climate change on income inequality in the United States using a climate–inequality Vector Autoregression (VAR) and daily temperature data for the contiguous U.S. over 1920–2019. We show that climate change is not limited to rising mean temperatures: the entire temperature distribution has shifted asymmetrically, with lower percentiles increasing faster than higher percentiles in most states. Identifying shocks to temperature distribution characteristics via zero and sign restrictions, we find that the effects of climate change on income inequality vary across temperature measures and widely across states, generating both positive and negative impacts on within-state inequality, with no strong link to states’ climate or per-capita income.
Rare Disasters and Consumption Smoothing: Testing a State-Dependent Savers–Spenders Framework
Joint with L. Pozzi
Submitted
Abstract. Rare macroeconomic disasters—such as pandemics, wars, and depressions—show sharp declines in GDP and consumption, often alongside financial distress. These conditions may weaken households’ ability to smooth consumption, but the extent remains unclear. We investigate this using a savers-spenders framework, where the share of rule-of-thumb spenders is larger during crises. This implies that expected income growth has less impact on the average propensity to consume, making the consumption-income ratio a stronger predictor of future income growth in disaster periods. Using state-dependent panel predictive regressions on annual data from 17 developed economies since 1870, we confirm this prediction and conclude that consumption smoothing declines significantly during rare disasters.
Chinese Monetary Policy: Connecting Words and Deeds
Joint with X. Han and F. Ravazzolo
Link to BoC WP (previous version )
Abstract. We propose a novel approach to estimating the People's Bank of China (PBOC) monetary policy rule. Given China's complex monetary policy framework, the PBOC's actions are not well captured by standard monetary policy rules that can be used for its Western counterparts. This calls for a new approach able to capture the complexities underlying the PBOC's observed behavior. This paper examines whether information provided in PBOC's official statements can help find their policy rule in practice. We use Latent Semantic Analysis to extract content information embedded in PBOC Monetary Policy Reports and examine whether these are significant in explaining Chinese monetary policy actions.
On the Cyclicality of Wage Inequality in the U.S.
Joint with D. Alessandrini
Link to latest version coming soon
Abstract. We investigate whether wage inequality in the U.S. is dependent on business cycle fluctuations. The existing literature has shown that wage inequality is acyclical. We show that this is true on average but the cyclicality has changed substantially over time. By allowing for time-variation in the relationship between wage inequality and macroeconomic conditions, we find that wage inequality was highly procyclical in 1988–1993 and at the onset of the Great Recession, while it was strongly counter-cyclical in the late 1990s and during 2014–2017. On average, the correlation between the cycle of GDP and that of wage inequality is close to zero, but this average masks heterogeneous dynamics. We then investigate possible explanations for the change in cyclicality over time.
Value added motive for export taxation
Joint with T. Yenilmez
Link to latest version coming soon
Abstract. The benefits of free trade are well established in theory, yet trade is rarely unrestricted in practice, raising the puzzle of why countries implement welfare-reducing trade policies. While existing literature emphasizes revenue motives, this paper explores an alternative: retaining value added domestically. Using a censored dependent variable approach, we analyze export taxes with primary commodity shares (PCS) as the main explanatory variable, distinguishing between point-source resources (oil and minerals) and diffuse-source resources (agriculture). Consistent with the resource curse and Dutch disease literature, point-source resources signal revenue-raising behavior, whereas diffuse-source resources indicate a value-added motive, indirectly supporting domestic manufacturing. Our results provide clear evidence in favor of the latter explanation.
WORK IN PROGRESS
Cognitive dissonance and job search
Joint with S. Lehrer
Demand for emotional goods: homeless with pets
Joint with B. Boggiano
Real-time evidence of demand stabilisation policies
Joint with A. Jaffery